# Scenarioanalyser (Test 3)

Alle tall per 100 g/dag, DerSimonian–Laird random effects. Inputvalgene står i hver tabell.

## A. Kolorektal – CUP 2016 som publisert (fra SLR fig. 125)

**Samlet: 1.12 (1.00–1.25)**  (fixed 1.10 (1.01–1.19); I² 23 %; k = 8)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ollberding2012 (ollberding2012) | 1.01 (0.90–1.14) | 35.0 | CUP |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.81 (0.50–1.29) | 5.1 | CUP |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 10.7 | CUP |
| norat2005 (norat2005) | 1.21 (1.02–1.43) | 24.9 | CUP |
| english2004 (english2004) | 1.19 (0.89–1.58) | 12.0 | CUP |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 2.8 | CUP |
| jarvinen2001 (jarvinen2001) | 1.37 (0.92–2.06) | 6.8 | CUP |
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 2.7 | CUP |

Utelat én: uten ollberding2012: 1.19 (1.06–1.34); uten lee2009: 1.14 (1.02–1.27); uten larsson2005: 1.11 (0.98–1.26); uten norat2005: 1.09 (0.96–1.25); uten english2004: 1.12 (0.98–1.27); uten tiemersma2002: 1.10 (0.99–1.23); uten jarvinen2001: 1.10 (0.98–1.24); uten pietinen1999: 1.13 (1.01–1.27)

## B. Kolorektal – CUP 2016 regelkonform (uprosessert rad der den finnes, kalibrert EPIC, Järvinen ut som totalkjøtt)

**Samlet: 1.08 (0.93–1.26)**  (fixed 1.05 (0.94–1.17); I² 25 %; k = 7)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ollberding2012 (mec) | 0.97 (0.83–1.13) | 37.0 | MEC: artikkelens rad for uprosessert (GL, CUPs energiomregning) |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.81 (0.50–1.29) | 8.7 | CUP (uendret) |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 17.1 | CUP (uendret) |
| norat2005 (epic) | 1.49 (0.91–2.43) | 8.2 | EPIC: artikkelens kalibrerte estimat (Tabell 4) |
| english2004 (mccs) | 1.12 (0.89–1.57) | 19.3 | MCCS: modellen justert for prosessert kjøtt (tekst) × 5,83 |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 5.0 | CUP (uendret) |
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 4.8 | CUP (uendret) |

Utelat én: uten ollberding2012: 1.15 (0.96–1.38); uten lee2009: 1.11 (0.95–1.30); uten larsson2005: 1.05 (0.89–1.25); uten norat2005: 1.04 (0.91–1.20); uten english2004: 1.08 (0.89–1.31); uten tiemersma2002: 1.05 (0.91–1.20); uten pietinen1999: 1.10 (0.93–1.30)

## C. Kolorektal – CUP 2016 med EPIC byttet til Papadimitriou 2022 (per SD 36,2 g → per 100 g)

**Samlet: 1.06 (0.99–1.15)**  (fixed 1.06 (0.99–1.13); I² 6 %; k = 8)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ollberding2012 (ollberding2012) | 1.01 (0.90–1.14) | 33.0 | CUP |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.81 (0.50–1.29) | 2.5 | CUP |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 5.8 | CUP |
| papadimitriou2022 (epic) | 1.06 (0.95–1.14) | 46.0 | EPIC 2022, 5 069 tilfeller, 14,1 år |
| english2004 (english2004) | 1.19 (0.89–1.58) | 6.7 | CUP |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 1.3 | CUP |
| jarvinen2001 (jarvinen2001) | 1.37 (0.92–2.06) | 3.4 | CUP |
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 1.3 | CUP |

Utelat én: uten ollberding2012: 1.10 (0.99–1.22); uten lee2009: 1.07 (0.99–1.15); uten larsson2005: 1.06 (0.97–1.14); uten papadimitriou2022: 1.09 (0.96–1.25); uten english2004: 1.06 (0.97–1.15); uten tiemersma2002: 1.05 (0.99–1.13); uten jarvinen2001: 1.05 (0.98–1.13); uten pietinen1999: 1.07 (0.99–1.16)

## D. Kolon – CUP 2016 som publisert

**Samlet: 1.22 (1.06–1.39)**  (fixed 1.22 (1.08–1.37); I² 12 %; k = 11)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| takachi2011 (takachi2011) | 1.36 (1.06–1.73) | 21.7 | CUP |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.86 (0.43–1.74) | 3.5 | CUP |
| oba2006 (oba2006) | 0.74 (0.28–1.96) | 1.9 | CUP |
| larsson2005_distal (larsson2005) | 2.59 (1.40–4.79) | 4.5 | CUP |
| larsson2005_proximal (larsson2005) | 1.17 (0.66–2.05) | 5.2 | CUP |
| norat2005 (norat2005) | 1.20 (0.96–1.48) | 25.8 | CUP |
| english2004 (english2004) | 1.00 (0.69–1.46) | 11.0 | CUP |
| wei2004 (wei2004) | 1.12 (0.83–1.50) | 16.3 | CUP |
| jarvinen2001 (jarvinen2001) | 1.30 (0.77–2.17) | 6.2 | CUP |
| singh1998 (singh1998) | 2.31 (0.63–8.45) | 1.1 | CUP |
| bostick1994 (bostick1994) | 0.94 (0.43–2.04) | 2.9 | CUP |

## D2. Kolon – rettet: Takachi med riktige mannsdoser (rødt kjøtt 15–102 g), SMC som én rad (fixed), Järvinen ut

**Samlet: 1.22 (1.07–1.38)**  (fixed 1.22 (1.08–1.38); I² 1 %; k = 9)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| takachi2011 (jphc) | 1.39 (1.08–1.81) | 22.4 | Takachi, riktige doser (GL, menn+kvinner fixed) |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.86 (0.43–1.74) | 3.2 | CUP |
| oba2006 (oba2006) | 0.74 (0.28–1.96) | 1.6 | CUP |
| larsson2005_distal (larsson2005) | 1.69 (1.11–2.56) | 8.9 | SMC distal+proksimal slått sammen |
| norat2005 (norat2005) | 1.20 (0.96–1.48) | 32.1 | CUP |
| english2004 (english2004) | 1.00 (0.69–1.46) | 10.9 | CUP |
| wei2004 (wei2004) | 1.12 (0.83–1.50) | 17.4 | CUP |
| singh1998 (singh1998) | 2.31 (0.63–8.45) | 0.9 | CUP |
| bostick1994 (bostick1994) | 0.94 (0.43–2.04) | 2.6 | CUP |

Utelat én: uten takachi2011: 1.17 (1.02–1.34); uten lee2009: 1.23 (1.08–1.40); uten oba2006: 1.23 (1.08–1.39); uten larsson2005_distal: 1.18 (1.04–1.34); uten norat2005: 1.21 (1.02–1.44); uten english2004: 1.25 (1.09–1.42); uten wei2004: 1.23 (1.06–1.43); uten singh1998: 1.21 (1.07–1.37); uten bostick1994: 1.22 (1.07–1.40)

## D3. Kolon – kohortversjoner: Takachi → Islam 2019 (JPHC-5y + Takayama, uprosessert), Oba → Wada 2017

**Samlet: 1.14 (1.02–1.27)**  (fixed 1.14 (1.02–1.27); I² 0 %; k = 9)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| islam2019 (japanese_pooled) | 1.05 (0.88–1.26) | 37.0 | Islam 2019 kvantitetspool (menn+kvinner fixed) |
| lee2009 (lee2009) | 0.86 (0.43–1.74) | 2.4 | CUP |
| wada2017 (takayama) | 1.45 (0.81–2.62) | 3.5 | Wada 2017 (GL, menn+kvinner fixed) |
| larsson2005_distal (larsson2005) | 1.69 (1.11–2.56) | 6.9 | SMC én rad |
| norat2005 (norat2005) | 1.20 (0.96–1.48) | 25.5 | CUP |
| english2004 (english2004) | 1.00 (0.69–1.46) | 8.5 | CUP |
| wei2004 (wei2004) | 1.12 (0.83–1.50) | 13.6 | CUP |
| singh1998 (singh1998) | 2.31 (0.63–8.45) | 0.7 | CUP |
| bostick1994 (bostick1994) | 0.94 (0.43–2.04) | 2.0 | CUP |

Utelat én: uten islam2019: 1.19 (1.04–1.37); uten lee2009: 1.15 (1.03–1.28); uten wada2017: 1.13 (1.01–1.26); uten larsson2005_distal: 1.11 (0.99–1.24); uten norat2005: 1.12 (0.98–1.28); uten english2004: 1.15 (1.03–1.29); uten wei2004: 1.15 (1.01–1.31); uten singh1998: 1.13 (1.02–1.26); uten bostick1994: 1.15 (1.02–1.29)

## E. Kolorektal 2026 – én rad per kohort, eksplisitt uprosessert der artikkelen har det (uten NIH-AARP/MWS/NHS-HPFS: se merknad)

**Samlet: 1.12 (1.02–1.22)**  (fixed 1.08 (1.02–1.16); I² 27 %; k = 12)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 1.8 | ATBC (CUP; beef/pork/lamb) |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 1.9 | Dutch MP (CUP; fersk rødt) |
| english2004 (mccs) | 1.19 (0.89–1.57) | 8.0 | MCCS (fersk rødt, per serving × 5,83) |
| papadimitriou2022 (epic) | 1.06 (0.95–1.14) | 25.8 | EPIC → Papadimitriou 2022 (red meat, per SD) |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 7.0 | SMC (CUP; beef/pork main dish) |
| ollberding2012 (mec) | 0.97 (0.83–1.13) | 17.8 | MEC uprosessert rad (GL) |
| gilsing2015 (nlcs) | 1.00 (0.81–1.23) | 12.4 | NLCS fersk rødt per 50 g → ^2 |
| wada2017 (takayama) | 1.72 (1.08–2.75) | 3.4 | Takayama → Wada 2017 (GL, menn+kvinner fixed) |
| knuppel2020 (ukbiobank) | 1.50 (1.10–2.04) | 6.9 | UK Biobank Knuppel modell 2 (GL fra kategorier med gjennomsnittsdoser) |
| mejborn2021 (dansda) | 1.04 (0.67–1.61) | 3.9 | DANSDA per 100 g |
| dankner2024 (israel_hist) | 1.15 (0.87–1.52) | 8.2 | Israel (Dankner, pooled) |
| mehta2020 (sister) | 1.30 (0.77–2.19) | 2.8 | Sister Study per 50 g → ^2 |

Utelat én: uten pietinen1999: 1.12 (1.02–1.24); uten tiemersma2002: 1.10 (1.01–1.21); uten english2004: 1.12 (1.01–1.23); uten papadimitriou2022: 1.15 (1.02–1.29); uten larsson2005: 1.11 (1.01–1.23); uten ollberding2012: 1.15 (1.04–1.26); uten gilsing2015: 1.14 (1.03–1.26); uten wada2017: 1.08 (1.00–1.17); uten knuppel2020: 1.07 (1.00–1.16); uten mejborn2021: 1.13 (1.02–1.24); uten dankner2024: 1.12 (1.01–1.24); uten mehta2020: 1.11 (1.01–1.23)

## E3. 2026 fullest: E + NIH-AARP + NHS/HPFS (Bernstein S5, per 100 g) + Million Women (Papier Suppl. Data 1, rødt kjøtt per 20 g → ^5, kalibrert)

**Samlet: 1.11 (1.04–1.18)**  (fixed 1.10 (1.05–1.14); I² 32 %; k = 15)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 0.9 | ATBC (CUP; beef/pork/lamb) |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 0.9 | Dutch MP (CUP; fersk rødt) |
| english2004 (mccs) | 1.19 (0.89–1.57) | 4.2 | MCCS (fersk rødt, per serving × 5,83) |
| papadimitriou2022 (epic) | 1.06 (0.95–1.14) | 16.9 | EPIC → Papadimitriou 2022 (red meat, per SD) |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 3.6 | SMC (CUP; beef/pork main dish) |
| ollberding2012 (mec) | 0.97 (0.83–1.13) | 10.5 | MEC uprosessert rad (GL) |
| gilsing2015 (nlcs) | 1.00 (0.81–1.23) | 6.8 | NLCS fersk rødt per 50 g → ^2 |
| wada2017 (takayama) | 1.72 (1.08–2.75) | 1.7 | Takayama → Wada 2017 (GL, menn+kvinner fixed) |
| knuppel2020 (ukbiobank) | 1.50 (1.10–2.04) | 3.6 | UK Biobank Knuppel modell 2 (GL fra kategorier med gjennomsnittsdoser) |
| mejborn2021 (dansda) | 1.04 (0.67–1.61) | 1.9 | DANSDA per 100 g |
| dankner2024 (israel_hist) | 1.15 (0.87–1.52) | 4.3 | Israel (Dankner, pooled) |
| mehta2020 (sister) | 1.30 (0.77–2.19) | 1.4 | Sister Study per 50 g → ^2 |
| zouiouich2025 (nih_aarp) | 1.13 (1.06–1.20) | 21.6 | NIH-AARP 2025 addisjonsmodell |
| bernstein2015 (nhs_hpfs) | 1.00 (0.89–1.11) | 14.9 | NHS+HPFS 2015, S5 per 100 g uprosessert (2 731 tilfeller) |
| papier2025 (mws) | 1.28 (1.00–1.54) | 6.6 | MWS 2025, per 20 g^5, målefeilkorrigert |

Utelat én: uten pietinen1999: 1.11 (1.04–1.18); uten tiemersma2002: 1.10 (1.03–1.17); uten english2004: 1.10 (1.03–1.18); uten papadimitriou2022: 1.12 (1.04–1.21); uten larsson2005: 1.10 (1.03–1.18); uten ollberding2012: 1.12 (1.05–1.19); uten gilsing2015: 1.12 (1.04–1.19); uten wada2017: 1.09 (1.03–1.16); uten knuppel2020: 1.09 (1.03–1.15); uten mejborn2021: 1.11 (1.04–1.18); uten dankner2024: 1.11 (1.03–1.18); uten mehta2020: 1.10 (1.03–1.18); uten zouiouich2025: 1.11 (1.02–1.20); uten bernstein2015: 1.12 (1.05–1.20); uten papier2025: 1.09 (1.03–1.17)

## E2. Som E, pluss NIH-AARP (Zouiouich 2025 addisjonsmodell, uprosessert, per 50 g/1000 kcal ≈ per 100 g/dag ved 2000 kcal/dag – antakelse)

**Samlet: 1.11 (1.04–1.19)**  (fixed 1.11 (1.06–1.16); I² 25 %; k = 13)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| pietinen1999 (pietinen1999) | 0.83 (0.43–1.61) | 1.0 | ATBC (CUP; beef/pork/lamb) |
| tiemersma2002 (tiemersma2002) | 1.69 (0.88–3.23) | 1.1 | Dutch MP (CUP; fersk rødt) |
| english2004 (mccs) | 1.19 (0.89–1.57) | 5.0 | MCCS (fersk rødt, per serving × 5,83) |
| papadimitriou2022 (epic) | 1.06 (0.95–1.14) | 22.2 | EPIC → Papadimitriou 2022 (red meat, per SD) |
| larsson2005 (larsson2005) | 1.23 (0.90–1.67) | 4.3 | SMC (CUP; beef/pork main dish) |
| ollberding2012 (mec) | 0.97 (0.83–1.13) | 13.1 | MEC uprosessert rad (GL) |
| gilsing2015 (nlcs) | 1.00 (0.81–1.23) | 8.3 | NLCS fersk rødt per 50 g → ^2 |
| wada2017 (takayama) | 1.72 (1.08–2.75) | 2.0 | Takayama → Wada 2017 (GL, menn+kvinner fixed) |
| knuppel2020 (ukbiobank) | 1.50 (1.10–2.04) | 4.3 | UK Biobank Knuppel modell 2 (GL fra kategorier med gjennomsnittsdoser) |
| mejborn2021 (dansda) | 1.04 (0.67–1.61) | 2.3 | DANSDA per 100 g |
| dankner2024 (israel_hist) | 1.15 (0.87–1.52) | 5.1 | Israel (Dankner, pooled) |
| mehta2020 (sister) | 1.30 (0.77–2.19) | 1.6 | Sister Study per 50 g → ^2 |
| zouiouich2025 (nih_aarp) | 1.13 (1.06–1.20) | 29.7 | NIH-AARP 2025, 9 461 tilfeller; energitetthet omregnet med 2000 kcal |

Utelat én: uten pietinen1999: 1.12 (1.04–1.20); uten tiemersma2002: 1.11 (1.04–1.18); uten english2004: 1.11 (1.03–1.19); uten papadimitriou2022: 1.13 (1.04–1.23); uten larsson2005: 1.11 (1.03–1.19); uten ollberding2012: 1.13 (1.06–1.20); uten gilsing2015: 1.12 (1.04–1.21); uten wada2017: 1.10 (1.04–1.16); uten knuppel2020: 1.10 (1.04–1.16); uten mejborn2021: 1.12 (1.04–1.20); uten dankner2024: 1.11 (1.03–1.20); uten mehta2020: 1.11 (1.03–1.19); uten zouiouich2025: 1.12 (1.02–1.22)

Ikke med i E fordi databasen mangler et lineært per-gram-estimat med KI: Million Women (Papier 2025 bare rødt+prosessert, kalibrert, per 30 g: 1,08 (1,03–1,12)), NHS/HPFS (Bernstein 2015 per porsjon uten gramvekt: uprosessert 0,99 (0,87–1,13) per porsjon/dag), BWHS (log10-skala), Alberta/UKB-Hoang (frekvenskategorier uten porsjon).

## F. Negativ kontroll – Fjørfe og kolorektal kreft (samme kohorter, hovedmodell, per 100 g)

**Samlet: 0.94 (0.79–1.11)**  (fixed 0.97 (0.86–1.09); I² 32 %; k = 9)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| norat2005 (epic) | 0.92 (0.68–1.25) | 17.6 | continuous_scaled |
| english2004 (mccs) | 0.61 (0.39–0.94) | 10.9 | continuous_scaled |
| pietinen1999 (atbc) | 1.86 (0.46–7.51) | 1.5 | GL_categories |
| gilsing2015 (nlcs) | 0.79 (0.41–1.56) | 5.7 | continuous_scaled |
| knuppel2020 (ukbiobank) | 1.08 (0.73–1.61) | 12.8 | GL_categories |
| mejborn2021 (dansda) | 1.39 (0.69–2.77) | 5.3 | continuous_scaled |
| dankner2024 (israel_hist) | 1.06 (0.89–1.26) | 27.8 | continuous_scaled |
| mehta2020 (sister) | 1.22 (0.69–2.22) | 7.1 | continuous_scaled |
| spencer2010 (uk_dcc) | 0.64 (0.42–1.00) | 11.4 | continuous_scaled |

Utelat én: uten norat2005: 0.94 (0.76–1.16); uten english2004: 1.00 (0.87–1.14); uten pietinen1999: 0.93 (0.78–1.11); uten gilsing2015: 0.95 (0.78–1.14); uten knuppel2020: 0.91 (0.75–1.12); uten mejborn2021: 0.92 (0.77–1.10); uten dankner2024: 0.90 (0.73–1.10); uten mehta2020: 0.92 (0.76–1.10); uten spencer2010: 0.99 (0.85–1.15)

## F. Negativ kontroll – Fisk og kolorektal kreft (samme kohorter, hovedmodell, per 100 g)

**Samlet: 0.76 (0.64–0.89)**  (fixed 0.76 (0.64–0.89); I² 0 %; k = 6)

| Studie (kohort) | Estimat | Vekt RE % | Valg |
|---|---|---|---|
| norat2005 (epic) | 0.70 (0.57–0.87) | 61.9 | continuous_scaled |
| english2004 (mccs) | 0.94 (0.58–1.57) | 11.1 | continuous_scaled |
| pietinen1999 (atbc) | 0.75 (0.36–1.56) | 5.1 | GL_categories |
| gilsing2015 (nlcs) | 0.81 (0.45–1.41) | 8.5 | continuous_scaled |
| mehta2020 (sister) | 0.92 (0.41–2.07) | 4.2 | continuous_scaled |
| spencer2010 (uk_dcc) | 0.85 (0.49–1.46) | 9.2 | continuous_scaled |

Utelat én: uten norat2005: 0.86 (0.66–1.13); uten english2004: 0.74 (0.62–0.88); uten pietinen1999: 0.76 (0.64–0.90); uten gilsing2015: 0.75 (0.63–0.89); uten mehta2020: 0.75 (0.63–0.89); uten spencer2010: 0.75 (0.63–0.89)